Luís Montenegro indicated as Prime Minister: What are AD's measures for the economy?

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What measures are planned by AD for the economy?  

With the vote count closed and a designated prime minister, Luís Montenegro, the measures of the Democratic Alliance (AD) will be implemented.

So, what is expected from AD for the country's economy? In their electoral program, a growth of 2.5% in 2025 to 3.4% in 2028 was expected, through a fiscal shock of five billion euros over the legislature. Read more at here.

The forecasts come from the macroeconomic scenario of the Council of Public Finance (CFP) and follow a "principle of prudence", maintaining the coalition with a projection for 2024 of 1.6%. & nbsp;

According to AD's macroeconomic scenario, domestic demand is expected to be the main contributor to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth by between 2.5 percentage points (pp.) and 3.1 pp..  

What is expected for IRS and IRC?

According to AD's economists, the growth due to the five billion fiscal shock during the legislature will include three billion euros for IRS, 1.5 billion for IRC and 500 million for tax measures targeted at housing.

In addition, there is also an expected growth in private consumption slightly below GDP (from 2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2028), while investment is above, mainly in 2025 and 2026.  

This is because an investment increase is expected to reach 5.2% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, decreasing to 3.2% in 2027 and 3.4% in 2028.

In the export of goods and services, the growth forecast is 3.8% in 2025, 4% in 2026, 4.4% in 2027, and 4.4% in 2028. And in imports, growth should be 3.8% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2028.

The program still indicates that a restrained growth in public consumption is expected with a variation rate between 1.7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2028.

What is forecasted in the job market?

The coalition's goal is for employment to increase from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, reaching 1.4% in 2028, contrasting with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 6.2% in 2025 to 5% in 2028.

Four structural reforms are the focus of the AD program.

The economic program of AD focuses on four structural reforms: reducing taxes on labor and investment, promoting private initiative and productivity, combating corruption, and a future-oriented economy.

To achieve this, their goal is to put into practice 10 strategic visions, such as:

• "Expand the conditions for effective economic freedom";
• Increase "productivity based on continuous improvement of human capital";  
• Create "conditions to attract private investment" or "budget responsibility and sustainability".

Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, leader of the PSD parliamentary group, at the press conference on the economic program ensured that this scenario is conservative and referred the costs of the announced measures to the presentation of the Electoral Program, when the budget scenario is disclosed. However, he mentioned that a "slight surplus of around 0.8% of GDP" is expected and that the weight of public debt should decrease to 90% of GDP.

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